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WRS: Five Lessons from the Massachusetts Special Election

From Wilson Research Strategies Political Insider’s Journal Blog:.

Last night’s special election in Massachusetts was a huge win for Scott Brown and Republicans and we have a lot to learn from the election about the way that the winning coalition is shifting and how we can tap into populist sentiment nationwide.

While fully understanding what happened and how we can use the lessons from Massachusetts around the country will take time, here are five lessons from Massachusetts in the form of more-or-less famous quotes.

1) “Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action.”

Since the 2008 election, Republican candidates are three-for-three in major statewide elections and all three came in states that Obama won.

The political winds are clearly blowing our way, but we can improve our chances of winning big in 2010 by understanding what our victories in Virginia, New Jersey and now Massachusetts have in common.

2) “Things fall apart, the center cannot hold.”

Much has been made of Obama’s “top and bottom” 2008 coalition.

Obama won big with voters with annual household incomes under $50,000 and also took 52% of the vote among those with household incomes over $200,000.

But, middle class voters were critical for Obama, as well.

He won 51% to 48% among voters with household incomes of $75,000 to $100,000.

Frustration with a Democratic agenda that seems to favor the very rich and the poor has driven a wedge through the middle of the Obama coalition.

Handouts to Wall Street and car company executives have fueled middle class anger at Democrats.

The decision to sacrifice cost control for a focus on access and universal coverage in the health care plan has furthered middle class disenchantment.

Republican candidates with a populist message have shown the way to winning back the middle-class vote.

Bob McDonnell won across the board in Virginia, but his biggest margins came from voters with household incomes of $50,000 to $100,000

In Massachusetts, election night polling showed Scott Brown winning every income group from $40,000 to $100,000 and winning blue collar strongholds like Lowell and Quincy.

3) The conventional wisdom that ‘negative campaigning works’ is “true in some sense, false in some sense, and meaningless in some sense.”

In the final days of the campaign, Martha Coakley went negative and tried to paint Scott Brown as everything from an arch-conservative to a Wall Street elitist.

None of these attacks worked.

We hear a lot in the campaign world about “driving up opponent negatives” and “inverting their image” but that kind of thinking is too simple and leads to failure.

“White hats versus black hats” is still one of the strongest narratives available to a campaign, but it takes more than just telling voters why the other side is bad. We have to tell them why our candidates are the “white hats.”

Scott Brown did this effectively by tapping into the populist middle-class sentiment and then branding Coakley and the Democrats as elitist, out of touch, and pursuing dangerous policies.

4) “Campaigns matter.”

Scott Brown and his campaign understood the mood of the electorate, developed a winning narrative, and got their message to voters. That’s how you win campaigns.

Much has been made of Brown’s “everyman” image.

- What he understood and what we need to understand is that the Republican constituency today is populist, middle class, and “everyman.”

If a well-run campaign with the right narrative, energy, and execution can win in deep-blue Massachusetts then we can win anywhere.

5) “Don’t pull your arm of socket trying to pat yourself on the back.”

Last night was a huge win for Scott Brown and should motivate every Republican around the country to redouble our efforts to win big in November.

But, last night also makes us one-for-five in special elections during this election cycle.

Republicans should be confident and emboldened, but we should also learn one from the Coakley campaign and not take anything for granted.

20. January 2010Chris Wilson, Healthcare, WRS 0 Comments »

Video: Chris Wilson on News Radio 1000 KTOK

Chris Wilson of Wilson Research Strategies takes a look at the Senate race in Mass, as well as the OK gubernatorial contest.

14. January 2010Chris Wilson 0 Comments »

Chris Wilson: “2010 Shaping Up to be a Year Where the Political Winds Will Favor Republicans”

Wilson Research Strategies founder and CEO Chris Wilson gives his assessment on the upcoming midterm elections:

“President Obama’s job approval ratings have already fallen below the 60% approval mark that has generally protected the sitting President’s party in Congress. Based on current trends, Obama is likely to have approval ratings in the mid-fifties if not worse.

In the last 60 years Presidents have had approval ratings in the mid 50’s on three separate occasions and their party lost an average of 27 seats in the House.

While it is too early to speak with certainty, the current direction of the political environment appears as though 2010 is shaping up to be a year where the political winds will favor Republicans.

At the very least, the “halo” around the administration is quickly dissipating. Republicans who hope to be successful in 2010 should already be working to test and refine messages that will highlight the differences between a Republican approach to solving national problems and the handouts, bailouts, and takeovers approach that the Big Government Democrats in DC are so passionately pushing today.” Read more…

6. July 2009Chris Wilson, WRS 3 Comments »

Video: WRS CEO Chris Wilson Debates ACORN on CNN

Wilson Research Strategies CEO Chris Wilson and Maria Cardona of the Glover Park Group debate ACORN on CNN Headline News’ Mike Galanos show.

 
From the WRS/The Hill Ad Review Blog:

With the last debate complete, McCain was not able to lob a game changer into the mix of things. McCain, being outspent significantly, needed to use this last opportunity to speak to 40 million Americans and convince them he is the best option. He was not able to accomplish that. McCain was able to push home a few key issues (example: he is not Bush’s 3rd term) but none were the knockout punches he needed. CNN’s poll after the debate finished gave it to Obama with just under 60% saying he won the debate. Most all critics and pundits are giving it to Obama as well. Look for nightly tracking numbers to remain relatively the same. Read more…

16. October 2008Chris Wilson, Decision '08, WRS 0 Comments »

Video: WRS CEO Discusses Obama’s “Lipstick on a Pig” Comment on Fox News

Wilson Research Strategies CEO Chris Wilson discusses Obama’s “lipstick on a pig” comments with host Martha McCallum on Fox News Live Desk.

13. September 2008Chris Wilson, Decision '08, WRS 0 Comments »

Video: WRS CEO Chris Wilson Discusses Palin’s Acceptance Speech on CNN

4. September 2008Chris Wilson, Decision '08, WRS 0 Comments »

WRS August 2008 National Political Environment Assessment

Leading national Republican research and consulting firm Wilson Research Strategies, has released its August 2008 edition of the National Political Environment Assessment

Highlights:

“The American public is more deeply concerned about the economy than they were about the war at it’s height opinion wise.”

“Ideas such as the gas tax holiday and support for offshore drilling finds support from a majority of the population, as does more long term solutions.”

“The American public has indicated that they think John McCain is better equiped to deal with the war in Iraq.”

WRS says the data presented in the report has been collected from reputable news and academic polling organizations, with analysis and interpretation by WRS.

13. August 2008Chris Wilson, Decision '08, Iraq War, WRS, economy 0 Comments »

WRS: People Listen to Christian Radio For……

We are definitely in the wrong business! Oklahoma’s own Wilson Research Strategies (WRS) was recently commissioned to do a poll on why people listen to Christian radio. You know what they found out? Hold on to your hats now. WRS found out that 56% of people listened to Christian radio for the Christian music, and 40% tuned in for the sermons and teaching.  Get out of here! Who whudda thunk it! We’d be VERY curious to know why the other 4% listen. Read more…

17. July 2008Chris Wilson, WRS 0 Comments »

Video: WRS CEO Chris Wilson on Glenn Beck Show

15. January 2008Chris Wilson, Decision '08, WRS 0 Comments »

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