Reflections on Tuesday’s Election Results

By Kirk Shelley

The most notable part of the election was who didn’t show up – 83% of the voters, the lowest number of voters going to the polls since 1952.

The date for primaries was moved up in 2003 from late August to July. It was thought that the move would give the voters more time to get to know the candidates before the General election. Initially it didn’t have much effect on turnout. In the 2004 Primary election there was big turn out because of the highly contested US Senate Primaries, and in 2006 there was a high turnout because of the gubernatorial primary and the contentious battle for the 5th Congressional seat, but there wasn’t anything that seemed to get the attention of the voters this year.

That doesn’t mean that there wasn’t anything going on, there were some really good local races, but these races didn’t attract media attention, nor the big dollars to get people’s attention.

The legislature might want to seriously consider moving the date of the primary back to late August when most vacations are over, school is back in session, football season is starting – that’s when most people start thinking about who’s going to spend their tax dollars.

Not that a higher turnout would have changed the results, but it would give greater validity to the perceived will of the people.

There were some fascinating races that were worth looking at in more detail.

First was the GOP Primary for Corporation Commissioner – it showed an interesting split amongst GOP primary voters. I can’t prove this scientifically, but what I heard from people who were discussing the race was Murphy was the more highly qualified candidate, but Johnson was perceived as the candidate who could raise the most money and win in November. If that is the debate, then the result is a near 50/50 split in the GOP.

The Democratic Primary for US Senate had to been a kick in the shins for Rice who started his TV commercials in the weeks before the primary. A win is a win, but Rice has been crisscrossing the state and got less than 60% of the vote – you have got to be less than impressed with the result. I don’t know if the D’s just don’t like him, or if some of them were confusing Rice with Roth and those voters just didn’t want to take the chance of voting for a homosexual.

In the GOP primaries for State House and Senate one real clear message came out – if you want to run in 2010, start running now. The candidates who began their campaigns over a year ago beat the late comers couldn’t raise the money to buy attention and were so far behind the eager beavers who were going door to door last fall.

Speaking of money – it is getting harder to raise money in some of the low tiered races. That forced many of the candidates to put up most of the money in the races themselves. That’s another hint to candidates for 2010 – start putting away money now so you don’t have to borrow it in 2010.

Tulsa had some really good battles and there is a big GOP run-off in Senate 35. Gary Stanislawski who is backed by those who really dislike the old GOP guard in town is going against Carson Carter. This is going to be an interesting show down. Each side in these battles has split some major elections and control of the City Council moves from side to side every election. Carson is a former city councilman who supported the tax increases the old guard favored is matched against Stanislawski who is a Jenks school board member who has great support from people like Chris Medlock. Now that the deck is cleared, it should be a very clear battle.

Speaking of old money, the Nichols Hill money tried to knock off two of their arch nemesis’s in the state capitol going after Reps. Mike Reynolds (55%) and Randy Terrill (74%). Reynolds was outspent 2-1 and Terrill’s opponent raised nearly as much money as he did – and Terrill had to weather a last minute personal attack gleefully reported by the Daily Oklahoman.

A race that wasn’t well covered in the rest of the state was Tulsa County Commissioner District 2 race. Sally Bell knocked off the incumbent Randi Miller garnering 81% of the vote. (Who says Republicans always vote for the incumbent). Miller was in trouble when she was a supporter of the failed “River Yes” campaign. However the race really began when Miller inexplicably decided not to renew the lease of popular and iconic Bell’s Amusement Park. Bell’s campaign was helped by a great grassroots volunteer effort headed by Ryan Underwood.

At this point it is difficult to draw any conclusions about the general except unless someone can excite the electorate state wide we are going to have a very low turnout election in November. Since Oklahoma isn’t in play in the Presidential campaign, and there isn’t much going on in the congressional races and if Inhofe keeps a sizable lead over Rice, close races are going to come down to getting out the vote.

Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 137 State House and Senate campaigns in 5states. Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.