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Reflections on Tuesday’s Election Results
By Kirk Shelley
The most notable part of the election was who didn’t show up – 83% of the voters, the lowest number of voters going to the polls since 1952.
The date for primaries was moved up in 2003 from late August to July. It was thought that the move would give the voters more time to get to know the candidates before the General election. Initially it didn’t have much effect on turnout. In the 2004 Primary election there was big turn out because of the highly contested US Senate Primaries, and in 2006 there was a high turnout because of the gubernatorial primary and the contentious battle for the 5th Congressional seat, but there wasn’t anything that seemed to get the attention of the voters this year.
That doesn’t mean that there wasn’t anything going on, there were some really good local races, but these races didn’t attract media attention, nor the big dollars to get people’s attention.
The legislature might want to seriously consider moving the date of the primary back to late August when most vacations are over, school is back in session, football season is starting – that’s when most people start thinking about who’s going to spend their tax dollars.
Not that a higher turnout would have changed the results, but it would give greater validity to the perceived will of the people.
There were some fascinating races that were worth looking at in more detail.
First was the GOP Primary for Corporation Commissioner – it showed an interesting split amongst GOP primary voters. I can’t prove this scientifically, but what I heard from people who were discussing the race was Murphy was the more highly qualified candidate, but Johnson was perceived as the candidate who could raise the most money and win in November. If that is the debate, then the result is a near 50/50 split in the GOP.
The Democratic Primary for US Senate had to been a kick in the shins for Rice who started his TV commercials in the weeks before the primary. A win is a win, but Rice has been crisscrossing the state and got less than 60% of the vote – you have got to be less than impressed with the result. I don’t know if the D’s just don’t like him, or if some of them were confusing Rice with Roth and those voters just didn’t want to take the chance of voting for a homosexual.
In the GOP primaries for State House and Senate one real clear message came out – if you want to run in 2010, start running now. The candidates who began their campaigns over a year ago beat the late comers couldn’t raise the money to buy attention and were so far behind the eager beavers who were going door to door last fall.
Speaking of money – it is getting harder to raise money in some of the low tiered races. That forced many of the candidates to put up most of the money in the races themselves. That’s another hint to candidates for 2010 – start putting away money now so you don’t have to borrow it in 2010.
Tulsa had some really good battles and there is a big GOP run-off in Senate 35. Gary Stanislawski who is backed by those who really dislike the old GOP guard in town is going against Carson Carter. This is going to be an interesting show down. Each side in these battles has split some major elections and control of the City Council moves from side to side every election. Carson is a former city councilman who supported the tax increases the old guard favored is matched against Stanislawski who is a Jenks school board member who has great support from people like Chris Medlock. Now that the deck is cleared, it should be a very clear battle.
Speaking of old money, the Nichols Hill money tried to knock off two of their arch nemesis’s in the state capitol going after Reps. Mike Reynolds (55%) and Randy Terrill (74%). Reynolds was outspent 2-1 and Terrill’s opponent raised nearly as much money as he did – and Terrill had to weather a last minute personal attack gleefully reported by the Daily Oklahoman.
A race that wasn’t well covered in the rest of the state was Tulsa County Commissioner District 2 race. Sally Bell knocked off the incumbent Randi Miller garnering 81% of the vote. (Who says Republicans always vote for the incumbent). Miller was in trouble when she was a supporter of the failed “River Yes” campaign. However the race really began when Miller inexplicably decided not to renew the lease of popular and iconic Bell’s Amusement Park. Bell’s campaign was helped by a great grassroots volunteer effort headed by Ryan Underwood.
At this point it is difficult to draw any conclusions about the general except unless someone can excite the electorate state wide we are going to have a very low turnout election in November. Since Oklahoma isn’t in play in the Presidential campaign, and there isn’t much going on in the congressional races and if Inhofe keeps a sizable lead over Rice, close races are going to come down to getting out the vote.
Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 137 State House and Senate campaigns in 5states. Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.
Murphy, Terrill Win; Price Fouls Up, So What’s New?
Tom Price came out from under his rock yesterday, and his churlish and juvenile responses to once again having Randy Terrill’s boot up his butt is just yet another example of why that Price should seek another line of work, but expect Randy Terrill and Dana Murphy to oppose any efforts to oust the incompetent Price from his job as chief political screw up at Chesapeake. They just love the job he’s doing!
The natural gas company had kept Price muzzled ever since his disastrous performance in the 2008 legislative session. Price’s mouth and foolish strategy, in concert with the bizarre Harry Coates foul-up, torpedoed a heavily-financed effort to repeal HB 1804, the immigration and reform act from the 2007 legislature.
But the main reason the effort failed was that State Rep. Randy Terrill, the HB 1804 author, was just better than Price and his rich bosses. Terrill once again paddled the pro-illegal immigration lobby, and while the others wisely kept their mouths shut after their humiliating loss, Price’s big ego once again proved mightier than his little brain.
Capitol insiders once considered Price a skillful player with good political instincts. Now he’s seen a errand boy with a bad haircut, poor political judgment and a skin too thin to endure his continual political miscalculations.
“Let’s face it, Oklahoma politics is not on par with big states Texas or Florida in terms of sophistication, so we’re about a AA League political standing in that regard. If this Price guy is having trouble operating in this environment, he’s going to be a real liability to Chesapeake as they move forward in trying to be a national political force,” one highly respected analyst tells OKPNS.
Regardless, Randy Terrill has defeated Tom Price once again. Price’s fanny was also spanked when Judge Dana Murphy defeated Chesapeake’s pick in the Republican corporation commission primary, and now Chesapeake’s boy Roth is vulnerable. Price dearly wanted State Rep. Rob Johnson to be Roth’s opponent since he was seen as someone Chesapeake could have controlled in a general election against Roth, but Price bet on the wrong horse, and now Murphy no doubt will be very aggressive with Roth, a veritable Chesapeake proxy on the commission. “She’s gonna attempt to take Roth’s head off no matter how much money he takes from Chesapeake, and the company’s influence with Roth is going to be an issue,” another insider tells OKPNS.
So this fall’s elections will further expose Chesapeake’s political conniving, and the pressure will really build on Price if he keeps his job. Terrill and Murphy aren’t going to forget soon, and it appears from the election returns that public is finally figuring out that Price and his friends don’t have what it takes to compete. There appears to be no one at Chesapeake who can control their messages, or their political people have no influence on Price, so it’s no wonder that the Tulsa World caught the stammering and sputtering political operative doing what he does best: screwing up.
“If you’re part of the 83% of the registered voters in Oklahoma who chose to sit on your ass for the election Tuesday, hit yourself in the head with a tack hammer because you’re an idiot. For some of us, elections actually matter and if you don’t show up in November, I’m coming to find you and have a little talk with you personally.” Read more…
Lawyer$$ Filling Campaign Coffers in Tulsa, Stillwater, Norman
With their influence at the State Capitol in jeopardy of being greatly diminished with the election of a Republican majority in the State Senate, trial lawyers across the state are almost singularly funding key Democrat campaigns, according to campaign finance reports filed with the Oklahoma Ethics Commission. Specifically, Senator Nancy Riley of Tulsa and candidates Robert Murphy of Stillwater and Diane Drum of Norman have received over 70% of their financial support from lawyers outside of their districts.
“Without the largesse of big-time lawyers who have a vested interest in seeing Republicans defeated at the polls, candidates like Nancy Riley, Robert Murphy and Diane Drum would barely have enough campaign money to buy that high-priced gasoline for which Riley is so grateful,” said Randy Swanson, Executive Director of the Oklahoma Republican Senatorial Committee. “The very lawyers who have financed Brad Henry’s campaigns, resulting in his consistent vetoes of lawsuit reform legislation are now funding Democrat Senate candidates across the state and Democrat campaign committees.
“In the case of Nancy Riley, their investment is already paying dividends, due to the fact that she has flip-flopped numerous times on the important tort reform legislation we need to keep our business climate and medical services thriving,” Swanson said. “She was for it before she was against it.”
An analysis of Ethics reports over the past three reporting periods (4th quarter 2007, 1st & 2nd quarters 2008) indicate the following startling statistics:
Senator Nancy Riley of Tulsa has raised $125,065 in individual, reportable (over $50) contributions. Of that figure, $85,425 has been raised from trial lawyers. Add the $5,400 her campaign has raised from lobbyists and Democrat legislators, such special interests account for 72.6% of Riley’s financial support.
Candidate Robert Murphy of Stillwater, the former judge, only recently announced his candidacy, and has filed one Ethics report. In that report, Murphy reports raising $51,600 from individuals, of which $35,900 – 69.6% — has come from lawyers, most from outside of Stillwater or Payne County.
Candidate Diane Drum of Norman has raised $74,485 from individuals of which $56,115 has come from lawyers, most of whom live outside Norman and Cleveland County, accounting for 75.3% of her financial receipts.
None of the above figures include contributions from liberal, pro-labor, anti-tort reform PACs, which are proving to be very generous to Democrat candidates and committees.
In a tactic indicative of haphazard campaign reporting or intentional misrepresentation, many lawyers list their occupations on these reports as Self Employed, Consultant, or some other innocuous title. However, a simple online search of their names belies their true occupations, and exposes the magnitude of the support from this special interest group enjoyed by Democrats.
“This is just the tip of the iceberg,” Swanson said. “A vast majority of the lawyers who have contributed to these and other Democrat Senate candidates have not yet given the legal maximum amount, so there are hundreds of thousands of dollars still on the table for their cause.
“With almost three of every four dollars in Democrat campaigns coming from the Democrat Party’s most affluent and reliable special interest group, the Trial Bar is making its last, bold stand to maintain its stranglehold on the Capitol, and the State Senate is their final beachhead. “They won’t go down without a fight.
“Oklahoma voters need to be aware of who controls the Democrats in the Senate, and to whom they are beholden,” Swanson concluded.
Dustin McGowen, former candidate for House District 54, released this statement last night on his ill fated run against Rep. Paul Wesselhoft. The popular Wesselhoft is founder of the annual “Skunk Master Award” for legislation which best “exhibits the pugnacious, stagnant smell of governmental greed.”
It’s considered anathema to run against an incumbent if he or she is of the same political affiliation. I got calls from party leaders and legislators trying to bully me into withdrawing my candidacy. I’m sure they figured I was some punk kid, just running to see his name on the ballot. My campaign showed, however, both to the Oklahoma Republican Party and to my community, is that I am serious about honest and capable representation at the State Capitol.
While this campaign allowed me to get my feet wet, I am not just a ripple in the pond.
I ran a smart campaign that stuck to the issues of fiscal conservatism and family values. I also tried to reveal a possible conflict of interest with Rep. Wesselhoft’s concurrent position in a tribal government, even though I was called an “anti-Indian” polemic for doing so. I showed voters my opponent’s record of misguided legislation, and told them where I would stand if elected.
I’m glad to have run this campaign. If for nothing else, I know that Rep. Wesselhoft will be mindful that he can be challenged in the future. Forcing incumbents into a campaign keeps them honest, and keeps them in contact with their constituency.
This will not be my last political campaign. I’m going to spend some time with my family, finish my undergraduate degree at Northeastern State University and gauge my options. I’ve dreamed for the last decade about representing a constituency, and this setback will not dash my hopes. Now that I know how to lose – winning comes next.”
Can you say…sour grapes?
We love to see candidates knocking doors and connecting with constituents. We’re not so fond of big corporations attempting to buy lawmakers. This proves our point. Don’t tell us ‘money talks’!
As Mick Hinton reports it in The Whirled, Money Can’t Buy Votes Here.
Tom Price, a spokesman for Chesapeake Energy, said Wednesday that Terrill “is not deserving of us to comment on him in particular.”
It’s OK, Tom, Randy doesn’t need your comment or your big corporate bucks!
As she dodges and ducks the press in Oklahoma City, the wheels are coming off the thinly veiled attempt by Judge Vicki Robertson to punish Judge Bill Graves for opposing the Oklahoma Bar Association’s effort to implement the American Bar Association’s new code of judicial conduct. Graves has taken a public stance against the aspect of the ABA regarding gays.
Virtually all courthouse observers believe Robertson is punishing Graves, but she is avoiding the press and sticking to her fairy tale. The question is, why?
One observer says Robertson has something to hide. “Nobody believes her story: not the press, not the other judges and not the lawyers that practice before her. It’s the worst lie since ‘I did not have sex with that woman.”
“These policies are not based on laws enacted by Congress or the State Legislature, but on proposals of the liberal, pro-homosexual American Bar Association.”- Oklahoma City District Judge Bill Graves
Some well placed sources believe that Robertson may have been responding to pressure from an unnamed Oklahoma State Supreme Court Justice to move Graves. Another believes that it’s simple bigotry, and that Robertson has a personal ax to grind with Graves. Still another thinks the removal of Graves may be linked to the upcoming ‘Oklahoma 3′ trials. While everybody we’ve spoken to doubts the veracity of Robertson’s public line, nobody believes she has made her decision on the only other reasonable explanation: that she’s an incompetent manager.
So we’re left to ponder the reason Robertson has thrown the courthouse into chaos. While dodging the press in Oklahoma is easy to do, it makes for bad public policy. Unfortunately, people like Judge Robertson have seen folks like Mike Turpen, Brad Henry and Harry Coates successfully avoid public accountability by relying on the incompetent press corps to drop the ball, and that encourages others to do the same.
Regardless, Judge Robertson has some explaining to do.
The Bill Kumpe Blog: Judge Graves Concerned About Homosexual Agenda In Changes to Code of Judicial Conduct
OKPNS FLASHBACK: 84 Days & Counting: Where’d You Go On Your Last Vacation Governor? – June 15, 2007 Image Credit: ronblackradio.com
“Most of us in this chamber are here because our constituents sent us here. They placed their trust in us, and in return we must pledge to them a government of complete openness and transparency.” Gov. Brad Henry – 2007 State of the State Address
“Henry spokesman Paul Sund says the location of first family outings are kept secret to avoid interruptions from people who want to talk or perhaps have dinner with the governor. Sund says the governor’s office will reveal the location when the governor returns…” (AP) March 23, 2007
As we all know by now, Governor Henry NEVER did reveal where he went on his secret vacation last spring, even though his spokesman Paul Sund promised to tell us after he returned. Sources told OKPNS that Henry was vacationing in Mexico at the Margarita-villa of trial attorney Terry West:
“Turns out that while leaders in the House and Senate were hammering out the details of a historic bipartisan budget agreement — the earliest in decades, it seems — Governor Henry was lounging on the beach and soaking up the rays in Cabo San Lucas at the posh vacation digs of trial lawyer Terry West.
The governor has publicly pledged to be in favor of lawsuit reform, but the reality is he’s in the hip pocket of the ambulance chasers.” Read more…
As his current trip to Turkey can attest, this governor sure seems to have a penchant for secrecy, especially when it comes to his travel schedule. From the Green County Values blog:
“Update 7/28/08: No press release has been posted to the governor’s website as of 9:20 am today. I called the Gov. Henry’s office, and was told that the server is down…no other information available.”
GCV did a little detective work discovered Henry is traveling with a group called the Institute of Interfaith Dialogue (IID). According to GVC, The IID is an anti-Jewish organization, currently based in Houston, TX.
“This trip is part of Governor Henry’s fascination with Islam. Last September, he “dedicated September 16, 2007 as the interfaith dialog day through a proclamation,” and in 2004 Henry created Oklahoma’s “Ethnic” American Advisory Council, made up of Muslims. This council distributed centennial copies of the Quran to Oklahoma legislators last year, annoying some, and drawing the ire of some Christians, who have been fighting for the continued right to share our faith in public for many years, now.” Read more…
The flaccid liberal wing of the Oklahoma business lobby was thumped once again by State Rep. Randy Terrill last night as their candidate, Curtis Bruehl of Moore, finished a distant second to the Immigration and Reform Act author. The House District 53 incumbent soundly defeated his opponent 74% to 26%. Bruehl’s campaign coffers were flush with money from business groups who apparently favor illegal aliens running wild in Oklahoma. Terrill was outspent more than 3-1, according to officials in his campaign.
It’s been a tough month for the Moore Republican, whose enemies attempted a last-ditch effort to spin details of his bankruptcy into a full blown scandal. The attempt failed. Terrill will face Democrat Troy Green, a candidate he’s defeated twice before, in November.
Related:
By M. Scott Carter Norman Transcript : Calling his primary win the equivalent of “surviving an assassination attempt,” an angry Randy Terrill blasted his Republican opponent and an “Oklahoma City oligarchy” which tried to defeat him Tuesday evening.