By Kirk Shelley

In a couple of months the GOP nominee is going to go after Jim Roth an openly homosexual Democrat. I keep hearing that “this race is a slam dunk, the people of Oklahoma won’t put up with that.” The conventional wisdom is conservative Oklahoma will immediately oppose a homosexual candidate.

There is going to be a challenge facing Roth’s opponent in balancing the desire of their anti-homosexual supporters to “go after him” and not alienating socially liberal/libertarian Republicans.

Here are the three major assumptions for making Roth’s private proclivities a major part of the campaign:

1) Oklahoma is a very conservative/evangelical state

2) We hate homosexuals

The first observation is true. We have one of the highest rates of regular church attendance in the country. When I’ve worked with national companies doing voter issue identification work, they keep wondering why voters who are adamantly pro-life are 20% higher than the national average. Our conservative values stick out.

Do Oklahomans hate homosexuals? Well we certainly hate arrogant in your face attempts to push the homosexual agenda down our throats, but then again so do people in other state. There have been parental protests in the liberal states Vermont and California when schools try to cram gay rights propaganda down our kid’s throats.

So what does that mean to the candidate who faces Roth? First your polling and focus groups is going to show that a large number of likely voters are going to vote against a homosexual. The temptation will be bang that issue like a sledge hammer . . . and it will backfire.

Let’s look at some other examples:

· When Roth was running for County Commissioner that was the primary hit against him, it didn’t work.

· David Boren was dogged for years of rumors of homosexuality, but it didn’t work – albeit President Boren attacked the rumor on a stack of Bibles.

· Bill Allian was running for Governor of Mississippi in 1983, several transsexual prostitutes came forward claiming that Allian was a big client. The heavy handed tactic backfired.

So what does it mean? Don’t get in the trap of believing the polls that simply pointing our Roth’s sexual preference is going to win the race for you. Name calling doesn’t win elections; you have to show how a candidates behavior impacts public policy. Some cases are pretty easy. Cheating Spouses = Cheating Politician. Hypocrisy can be identified with a holy roller caught with a prostitute. Some folks are just going to wonder, “what difference does Roth’s behavior make in my utility bill?”

Before the GOP primary we may want to ask the candidates “how are you going to go after Roth?” So here are the question:

· Do you want to make Roth’s public sexual orientation?

· How do you publicize Roth’s homosexuality to those who don’t know it?

· Can you make the case that Roth’s sexuality affects his job?

· Here’s a big one – how are you going to react to some goofy group of citizens who run around with signs that say “God Hate Fags”?

Everyone of these questions has a big up and downside and worthy of some good strategy sessions.

Mr. Shelley is President of Shelley Strategic Services. His consulting for pro-business organizations has included successfully completed projects in Iowa, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Mexico, Mississippi, Arizona, Louisiana and Alabama. As a general consultant, Mr. Shelley has worked on 137 State House and Senate campaigns in 5 states and has a winning percentage of 92%.

A graduate of East Carolina University, Mr. Shelley lives in Oklahoma City with his wife and four children.